An axiomatic model of non bayesian updating


The main result is a representation theorem that generalizes (the dynamic version of) Anscombe-Aumann's theorem so that both the prior and the way in which it is updated are subjective.The model can accommodate updating biases analogous to those observed by psychologists.Larry Epstein () Review of Economic Studies, 2006, vol.73, issue 2, 413-436 Abstract: This paper models an agent in a three-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behaviour when formulating plans.Larry Epstein () No 521, RCER Working Papers from University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) Abstract: This paper models an agent in a three-period setting who does not update according to Bayes'Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans.A representation theorem generalizes the (dynamic version of) Anscombe-Aumann's theorem so that both the prior and the way in which it is updated are subjective.



The agent is rational in the sense that her dynamic behavior is derived from a stable preference order on a domain of state-contingent menus of acts.

TY - JOURT1 - Non-Bayesian updating T2 - Theoretical Economics AU - Epstein, Larry G.